How Bodyweight Projections Work

Learn · How the tools & numbers work

Weight projections are based on a simplified energy balance model: approximately 3,500 calories equals one pound of body mass change (7,700 calories per kilogram). This rule is a useful planning tool, not a perfect biological constant.

BodEvo's projection tool recalculates your estimated maintenance calories every week as your bodyweight changes. This makes the projections adaptive rather than linear.

During a cut: as you lose weight, your BMR decreases because you have less body mass to maintain. Your maintenance calories fall each week, which means the same daily intake produces a gradually smaller weekly deficit. This is why fat-loss rate naturally slows over time even when intake stays constant.

During a bulk: the opposite occurs. As you gain weight, maintenance calories rise and the calorie surplus relative to maintenance gradually shrinks. This causes the rate of gain to decelerate slightly over time.

This is why projection graphs curve rather than running in a straight line. If you see a nearly straight line, it means the maintenance recalculation effect is small relative to the scale of the projection.

Practical implication: during long cuts or bulks of 12 or more weeks, your calorie target should be reassessed periodically based on actual scale trend, not assumed to work indefinitely. If you are not progressing at the rate the tool projects, maintenance calories may need to be recalculated from actual intake and scale data.

Real scale weight fluctuates daily from water, sodium, carbohydrates, glycogen, digestion, sleep quality, and soreness. Use weekly averages of multiple weigh-ins rather than single daily readings to see the actual trend.

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